Last week, Tangshan's high-profile autumn and winter differential staggered peak production program was officially announced, "key industries in autumn and winter differential staggered peak production performance evaluation guidance notice," pointed out that it is planned to be implemented from October 1, 2008 to March 31, 2019. Tangshan will be divided into four types of square management enterprises ABCD: Class A enterprises, in the autumn and winter period do not cross-peak production; Class B, C, D enterprises, during the autumn and winter peak staggered 30% - 70%, from the point of view of the intensity of production restriction is lower than last year's level, or even can not meet the requirements of all production, but overall compared with last year tends to be relaxed.

中國方管工業(yè)協(xié)會秘書長劉振江表示，與去年相比，今年鋼廠不太可能普遍被要求按一定比例減產(chǎn)。如果空氣質(zhì)量良好，需要的減產(chǎn)就會減少，反之亦然；他周三在大連表示，符合排放標準的工廠將獲得豁免，這一消息的傳出將給市場價格帶來一定的壓力。

Liu Zhenjiang, secretary-general of the China Square Management Industry Association, said steel mills are unlikely to be generally required to reduce production by a certain percentage this year compared with last year. If air quality is good, production cuts will be reduced, and vice versa; he said in Dalian on Wednesday that factories meeting emission standards will be exempted, and the news will put pressure on market prices.

由于今年鋼企盈利較好，在環(huán)保熱潮逐漸退卻的情況下，不少鋼企開始加入復產(chǎn)行列。據(jù)中鋼協(xié)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月上旬重點鋼企粗鋼日均產(chǎn)量197.20萬噸，旬環(huán)比增加7.01萬噸，增長3.69%。因為復產(chǎn)鋼企增多，對后期鋼價有一定的抑制。

Due to the good profit of steel enterprises this year, many steel enterprises began to join the ranks of resumption production under the circumstance of environmental protection fade. According to the data of the China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises in early September was 197.2 million tons, an increase of 70.1 million tons, an increase of 3.69%. Because of the increase of steel production enterprises, there is a certain inhibition on the later steel prices.

據(jù)蘭格方管網(wǎng)統(tǒng)計顯示，進入9月下旬全國百家中小鋼企高爐開工率下降到了79.54%，比9月初下降了2個百分點左右。蘭格方管網(wǎng)首席分析師馬力表示，預計9月中旬、下旬產(chǎn)量將有所回落。

According to the statistics of Langer square pipe network, the blast furnace operation rate of 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises dropped to 79.54% in late September, which is about 2 percentage points lower than the beginning of September. Ma Li, chief analyst of Lange square pipe network, said production is expected to recede in the middle and late September.

近期，雄安新區(qū)大規(guī)模建設將至，基建投資將超千億元、高鐵等基建項目加快審批，推出民間投資項目清單、機器人市場持續(xù)增長等一些列“鋼需”消息頻 傳。國家財政政策、貨幣政策針對地方政府融資、基建做出的調(diào)整，將有助于穩(wěn)定全國基建增長速度，今年四季度、明年上半年，基建整體投資狀況有望出現(xiàn)好轉， 對于穩(wěn)定方管需求尤其是建筑方管需求將起到支撐作用。

Recently, the large-scale construction of Xiong'an New Area is approaching, the capital construction investment will exceed 100 billion yuan, high-speed rail and other infrastructure projects to speed up the examination and approval, the introduction of non-governmental investment projects list, the robot market continued to grow, and other "steel demand" news spread frequently. The adjustment made by the state financial and monetary policies to local government financing and infrastructure will help stabilize the growth rate of infrastructure throughout the country. In the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year, the overall investment situation in infrastructure is expected to improve, which will play a supporting role in stabilizing the demand for square management, especially for construction.

受全國范圍內(nèi)的方管需求正在逐漸好轉影響，方管社會庫存出現(xiàn)了明顯的下降。蘭格方管云商平臺監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截止9月21日，方管社會庫存為 846.4萬噸，較上周下降了13.6萬噸，扭轉了9月份前兩周庫存持續(xù)增長的態(tài)勢。庫存總量依然維持在較低水平，對于后期價格有一定的支持作用。

Influenced by the gradual improvement of the demand for square management throughout the country, the social stock of square management has decreased significantly. The Langer Square Cloud Merchants Platform monitoring data show that as of September 21, the Square Social Inventory was 8.464 million tons, down 136,000 tons from last week, reversing the trend of continued inventory growth in the first two weeks of September. The total inventory remains at a low level, which has some support for later price.

告別“金九”，“銀十”方管行情能否再度飆高？

Farewell to "Kim Gu", "silver ten" square tube market can rise again?

據(jù)蘭格首席分析師馬力表示，10月份行情主要與長假后各地方管庫存的增長是否超出預期、唐山的差異化限產(chǎn)執(zhí)行時間和其他省市的秋冬季大氣污染防治 計劃中的關于方管行業(yè)差異化限產(chǎn)的政策如何出臺等因素有關。如果缺乏大的政策指引、缺少突發(fā)政策的影響，靠整體供需面的調(diào)節(jié)一般很難出現(xiàn)明確的方向性走 勢，10月份保持高位震蕩的可能性更大。

According to Ma Li, Langer's chief analyst, the market in October was mainly related to factors such as whether the growth of local managed inventories exceeded expectations after the long vacation, the implementation time of Tangshan's differentiated production restriction and the introduction of the policy of differentiated production restriction in the local management industry in the fall and winter air pollution control plans of other provinces and cities. In the absence of big policy guidance and sudden policy impact, it is generally difficult to have a clear direction by adjusting the overall supply and demand, and it is more likely to maintain high volatility in October.

此外，馬力還提醒，12月后需防范鋼價下跌的風險。因為目前相對較高的方管價格將影響貿(mào)易商的冬儲意愿；連續(xù)數(shù)月保持高水平的方管產(chǎn)量以及實質(zhì)形 成的高產(chǎn)能釋放能力，時間長了市場總有受不了的一天；實現(xiàn)超低或特別排放限值的企業(yè)，采暖季限產(chǎn)可能將不受限值，另外中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)背景下，機電產(chǎn)品出口可能 受到的沖擊等，這些因素都將導致市場產(chǎn)生下跌風險。

In addition, horsepower also reminds us that we need to guard against the risk of falling steel prices after December. Because relatively high square pipe prices will affect TRADERS'willingness to store in winter, maintaining a high level of square pipe production for several months in a row and substantially forming a high capacity release capacity, there will always be an unacceptable day for the market to go on; companies that achieve ultra-low or special emission limits may have unlimited heating season production limits, and Under the background of Sino-US trade war, the export of mechanical and electrical products may be impacted. All these factors will lead to the downside risk of the market.

方管