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-> 行業(yè)資訊－ 目前的焊管價(jià)格接近焊管廠的現(xiàn)金成本
發(fā)布時(shí)間：(2018/10/31)
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目前的焊管價(jià)格接近焊管廠的現(xiàn)金成本 |
隨著焊管價(jià)格的下跌，焊管廠噸鋼虧損近300元，目前的焊管價(jià)格接近焊管廠的現(xiàn)金成本。實(shí)際上在焊管價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌過程中，由于原料庫(kù)存及產(chǎn)成品庫(kù)存原因，導(dǎo)致焊管廠的虧損遠(yuǎn)大于實(shí)時(shí)測(cè)算的生產(chǎn)盈虧。根據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù)的測(cè)算，當(dāng)噸鋼虧損達(dá)到300元/噸時(shí)，將使焊管廠的現(xiàn)金收入為負(fù)，也就是說很快就會(huì)出現(xiàn)焊管廠減產(chǎn)。從近期的唐山鋼企高爐開工率的數(shù)據(jù)中可以看到，近期，高爐開工率維持在91%附近，遠(yuǎn)低于年初的98.65%。
With the price of welded pipe falling, the welded pipe factory lost nearly 300 yuan per ton of steel, and the current price of welded pipe is close to the cash cost of welded pipe factory. In fact, in the process of continuous decline in welded pipe prices, due to the stock of raw materials and finished products, resulting in welded pipe factory losses far greater than real-time estimates of production profits and losses. According to the historical data, when the loss of 300 yuan per ton of steel, the cash income of the welded pipe factory will be negative, that is to say, the welded pipe factory will soon reduce production. From the recent data of blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel enterprises, it can be seen that in the near future, the blast furnace operation rate maintained around 91%, far lower than 98.65% at the beginning of the year.
事實(shí)上，我們統(tǒng)計(jì)的焊管企業(yè)多為規(guī)模較大、相對(duì)具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的焊管廠，而部分小型焊管廠的開工率遠(yuǎn)低于此。尤其是近期市場(chǎng)資金較為緊張，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)少數(shù)焊管廠由于資金鏈斷裂而倒閉停產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象。由此看來，未來粗鋼供應(yīng)量有下降趨勢(shì)。與此同時(shí)，鋼協(xié)重點(diǎn)焊管企業(yè)庫(kù)存也出現(xiàn)下降，4月重點(diǎn)鋼企的焊管庫(kù)存為4029萬(wàn)噸，5月此數(shù)據(jù)下降為3973萬(wàn)噸，預(yù)計(jì)6月重點(diǎn)鋼企焊管庫(kù)存將下降至3935萬(wàn)噸左右。同期，唐山鋼坯的庫(kù)存也出現(xiàn)持續(xù)下滑，由高點(diǎn)的197萬(wàn)噸跌至近期的88萬(wàn)噸，跌幅達(dá)56%。因此，僅從庫(kù)存周期來看，焊管的清庫(kù)周期快要結(jié)束，焊管價(jià)格蓄勢(shì)待漲。
In fact, most of our welded pipe enterprises are relatively large-scale and competitive welded pipe factories, and some of the small welded pipe factories are far below this rate of operation. Especially in the near future market funds are tight, there have been a few welded pipe factories due to the breakdown of the capital chain shutdown phenomenon. In view of this, the supply of crude steel will decrease in the future. Meanwhile, the inventory of key welded pipe enterprises of the Steel Association also declined. In April, the inventory of welded pipe of key steel enterprises was 40.29 million tons, which dropped to 39.73 million tons in May. It is expected that the inventory of welded pipe of key steel enterprises will drop to about 39.35 million tons in June. Over the same period, Tangshan billet stocks also continued to decline, from a high of 1.97 million tons to the recent 880,000 tons, a drop of 56%. Therefore, judging from the inventory cycle, the clearance period of the welded pipe is almost over, and the price of the welded pipe is ready to rise. 標(biāo)簽:
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