廠家分析今冬方管價(jià)格走勢(shì)將會(huì)怎樣？

進(jìn)入4季度以來(lái)，全國(guó)方管市場(chǎng)需求較為旺盛，由此拉動(dòng)鋼鐵產(chǎn)量較大幅度增長(zhǎng)，并因?yàn)橐睙挸杀镜奶岣�，致使價(jià)格行情震蕩揚(yáng)升，鋼鐵行業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)明顯增多，總體呈現(xiàn)繼續(xù)升溫態(tài)勢(shì)。
Since entering the fourth quarter, the demand of the national square management market has been relatively vigorous, which has led to a substantial increase in iron and steel production. As a result of the increase in smelting costs, the price fluctuation has risen, the profits of the steel industry have increased significantly, and the overall situation has continued to warm up. 今后中國(guó)方管市場(chǎng)行情如何？尤其今年冬天，即春節(jié)之前的價(jià)格走勢(shì)將會(huì)怎樣？再次成為市場(chǎng)參與者們的關(guān)注熱點(diǎn)。
What is the market price of Chinese square tubes in the future? What is the price trend especially this winter, before the Spring Festival? Once again become the focus of attention of market participants.

1、基本面較為健康，不具備大幅跌落基礎(chǔ)
1, the fundamentals are healthy and do not have a substantial drop base.

應(yīng)該說(shuō)，迄今為止，中國(guó)方管市場(chǎng)基本較為健康。主要體現(xiàn)為決策部門以擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，特別是穩(wěn)定基建投資方式，應(yīng)對(duì)外部環(huán)境嚴(yán)峻，化解經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力。比如貨幣政策趨向?qū)捤�、�?cái)政政策更為積極、減稅降負(fù)、支持民營(yíng)企業(yè)和小微企業(yè)等。隨著上述政策效應(yīng)的逐步顯現(xiàn)，今年4季度中國(guó)方管的國(guó)內(nèi)需求繼續(xù)旺盛，由此消化了不斷創(chuàng)下新高的鋼鐵增量，全國(guó)方管社會(huì)庫(kù)存持續(xù)低位。2018年11月初（11月2日），全國(guó)方管綜合庫(kù)存指數(shù)為87.6，比今年1季度高點(diǎn)（3月9日）下降53%，比去年同期下降1.7%。其中長(zhǎng)材庫(kù)存指數(shù)為95.6，比今年1季度高點(diǎn)（3月9日）下降近7成，比去年同期下降14%。正是這種健康的基本面，提振了市場(chǎng)信心，短時(shí)期內(nèi)不具備價(jià)格大幅跌落基礎(chǔ)。
It should be said that so far, the Chinese market is basically healthy. Mainly reflected in the decision-making departments to expand domestic demand, especially to stabilize the way of investment in infrastructure, to cope with the severe external environment, to defuse the downward pressure of the economy. For example, monetary policy tends to be loose, fiscal policy is more active, tax reduction, support for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, etc. With the gradual emergence of the above policy effects, China's domestic demand for square management continued to boom in the fourth quarter of this year, thus digesting the ever-reaching new steel increment, and the national inventory of square management society remained low. At the beginning of November 2018 (November 2), the national comprehensive inventory index of square management was 87.6, which was 53% lower than the peak in the first quarter of this year (March 9), and 1.7% lower than the same period last year. Among them, the inventory index of long timber is 95.6, which is nearly 70% lower than the peak in the first quarter of this year (March 9), and 14% lower than the same period last year. It is this healthy fundamentals that boost market confidence and do not have the basis for a sharp drop in prices in a short period of time.

2、春節(jié)前資金較為謹(jǐn)慎，一般不會(huì)大舉買進(jìn)
2, before the Spring Festival, funds are more prudent, generally do not buy big.

按照以往規(guī)律，冬季屬于需求淡季，供求關(guān)系相對(duì)寬松，因此春節(jié)之前資金較為謹(jǐn)慎，尤其是期貨投機(jī)資本，一般不會(huì)大舉買進(jìn)，這就使得方管價(jià)格亦難以出現(xiàn)暴漲。
According to the previous law, winter is a slack season of demand, and the supply-demand relationship is relatively loose. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, funds are more cautious, especially futures speculative capital, which generally will not buy in large quantities, which makes it difficult for the square price to rise sharply.

春節(jié)之前的現(xiàn)貨買進(jìn)，主要是方管“冬儲(chǔ)”。其規(guī)模如何？這不僅要取決于來(lái)年春天市場(chǎng)信心，還受制于鋼鐵企業(yè)讓利如何？目前來(lái)看，鋼鐵企業(yè)銷售順暢，庫(kù)存壓力不大，因此價(jià)格大幅讓利不會(huì)太大。如果這種局面持續(xù)下去，預(yù)計(jì)鋼鐵貿(mào)易商們的“冬儲(chǔ)”積極性亦不會(huì)太高。
The spot purchase before the Spring Festival is mainly the "winter storage" of the square tube. What is its scale? This depends not only on market confidence in the coming spring, but also on how to profit from iron and steel enterprises. At present, iron and steel enterprises sell smoothly, inventory pressure is not large, so price concessions will not be too large. If this situation continues, it is expected that steel traders' enthusiasm for "winter storage" will not be too high.

3、各種因素較為確定，市場(chǎng)行情較為平穩(wěn)
3, various factors are relatively determined, and the market is relatively stable.

2018年中國(guó)方管市場(chǎng)的兩大不確定因素，一是中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)；二是環(huán)保限產(chǎn)。目前市場(chǎng)對(duì)這兩大因素已經(jīng)消化，預(yù)期穩(wěn)定：
The two major uncertainties in the Chinese side market in 2018 were the Sino US trade war and the two environmental protection limited production. At present, the market has already digested these two factors and is expected to be stable:

中國(guó)方管出口已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)較大幅度下降，即便中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)出現(xiàn)最糟糕的情況，也不過(guò)如此。況且，決策部門對(duì)此已經(jīng)具有政策儲(chǔ)備，預(yù)計(jì)外部需求形勢(shì)越是嚴(yán)峻，國(guó)內(nèi)需求的啟動(dòng)力度就會(huì)越大，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)中向好、中高速增長(zhǎng)局面不會(huì)改變，由此奠定了中國(guó)方管需求繼續(xù)旺盛的堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。
China's export control has declined considerably, even in the worst case of the Sino-US trade war. Moreover, policy-making departments have policy reserves for this. It is expected that the more severe the external demand situation is, the more vigorous the domestic demand will be. The situation of stable, medium and high-speed growth of China's economy will not change, thus laying a solid foundation for China's continued vigorous demand for management.

環(huán)保限產(chǎn)力度如何？主要取決于天氣狀況。出于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與保證供應(yīng)的需要，如果不出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重霧霾天氣，估計(jì)今冬取暖期間，鋼鐵企業(yè)限產(chǎn)不會(huì)“一刀切”，力度亦不會(huì)太大。對(duì)此，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)取得共識(shí)，分歧不大，從而使得 “炒作題材”相應(yīng)減少，減緩了市場(chǎng)震蕩。
What is the limit of environmental protection? It depends mainly on weather conditions. For the need of economic growth and supply assurance, if there is no severe haze weather, it is estimated that during the heating period this winter, iron and steel enterprises will not limit production "one size fits all" and the intensity will not be too great. In this regard, the market has reached a consensus, there is little disagreement, so that the "hype theme" corresponding reduction, slowing down market shocks.

由此可見(jiàn)，今冬中國(guó)方管市場(chǎng)應(yīng)該高位運(yùn)行，波瀾不驚。當(dāng)然，因?yàn)楫?dāng)前方管庫(kù)存水平較低，尤其是建材庫(kù)存持續(xù)下降；同時(shí)方管現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于期貨價(jià)格，而現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格又看不出大幅跌落跡象。因此方管市場(chǎng)還是具備了一定的上漲基礎(chǔ)，現(xiàn)在是“萬(wàn)事俱備只欠東風(fēng)”，需要一個(gè)“火星引爆上漲火藥”。
It can be seen that this winter China's market of local management should be running at a high level. Of course, because the current level of inventory is low, especially building materials inventory continues to decline; at the same time, spot prices are much higher than futures prices, and spot prices do not show signs of a sharp drop. Therefore, the market still has a certain basis for growth. Now it is "everything is ready but the East wind" and needs a "Mars detonates the rising gunpowder".

這個(gè)“火星”是什么？目前不得而知。可能是中美貿(mào)易談判峰回路轉(zhuǎn)，突然出現(xiàn)重大利好；也可能是霧霾嚴(yán)重，鋼鐵企業(yè)限產(chǎn)力度大大超出預(yù)期；也有可能是重大事故�？傊�，是極大超出預(yù)期的意外消息。否則，缺乏重大炒作題材，“上漲火藥就不會(huì)引爆”，今冬方管市場(chǎng)行情將會(huì)一直相對(duì)平穩(wěn)。
What is this "Mars"? It is not known at present. Maybe it's the turn of the Sino-US trade negotiations that has brought about a sudden positive outcome. Maybe it's the severe haze that has caused the steel companies to exceed their expectations in limiting their output. Maybe it's also a major accident. In short, it is a great unexpected news. Otherwise, in the absence of major hype, "rising gunpowder will not explode", the market will remain relatively stable this winter.

方管