方管行業(yè)“喜中有憂” 廠家呼吁：再不能盲目擴(kuò)產(chǎn)了

作為最早進(jìn)行供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的兩大行業(yè)，煤炭和方管行業(yè)今年運(yùn)行形勢(shì)普遍較好。但行業(yè)專家也提醒說(shuō)，目前行業(yè)運(yùn)行喜中有憂。尤其是方管行業(yè)，在去產(chǎn)能和環(huán)保限產(chǎn)雙重壓力下，產(chǎn)量仍在增長(zhǎng)。因此，必須建立防范過(guò)剩的長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制。
As the earliest two major industries to carry out structural reform on supply side, coal and square management industries are generally in a better position this year. But industry experts also cautioned that there are worries in the industry. Especially in the square tube industry, under the dual pressure of capacity and environmental protection, the output is still growing. Therefore, we must establish a long-term mechanism to prevent excess. 根據(jù)中國(guó)方管工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)近日公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，今年方管企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益持續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)。1-9月會(huì)員方管企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售收入3.06萬(wàn)億元，同比增長(zhǎng)14.47%； 實(shí)現(xiàn)利稅3466.81億元，同比增長(zhǎng)68.20%；實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)總額2299.63億元，同比增長(zhǎng)86.01%。9月末，會(huì)員方管企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率 66.11%，同比下降3.91個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
According to the statistics released recently by the China Association of Square Administration Industries, the economic benefits of Square Administration Enterprises have continued to improve this year. From January to September, member-managed enterprises realized sales revenue of 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.47% year on year; realized profits and taxes of 34.6681 billion yuan, an increase of 68.20% year on year; realized profits of 229.963 billion yuan, an increase of 86.01% year on year. At the end of 9, the assets and liabilities ratio of the member companies was 66.11%, down 3.91 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

但統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也顯示，在高利潤(rùn)的驅(qū)動(dòng)下，前三季度生鐵、粗鋼和鋼材產(chǎn)量均有不同程度的上升。
But statistics also show that, driven by high profits, pig iron, crude steel and steel production increased in different degrees in the first three quarters.

11月10日舉行的2018（第七屆）中國(guó)方管技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)高端論壇上，中鋼協(xié)副會(huì)長(zhǎng)屈秀麗表示，鋼價(jià)將繼續(xù)呈小幅波動(dòng)走勢(shì)，不會(huì)大漲大跌。四季度方管企業(yè)效益環(huán)比會(huì)下降，全年保持增長(zhǎng)。
At the 2018 (7th) High-end Forum on Technology and Economy of China's Square Management held on November 10, Vice President Qu Xiuli of China Steel Association said that steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly and will not rise or fall sharply. Fourth quarter, the benefit ratio of square tube enterprises will decline, and keep growing throughout the year.

冶金工業(yè)規(guī)劃研究院院長(zhǎng)李新創(chuàng)接受上證報(bào)記者采訪時(shí)直言，目前行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)暖向好，很大程度是供給側(cè)改革和環(huán)保治理加碼帶來(lái)的結(jié)果。行業(yè)需要珍惜改革帶來(lái)的 成果，要防止盲目擴(kuò)大規(guī)模。若再次因非理性擴(kuò)張引起產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩，恐怕很難有新的絕處逢生的機(jī)會(huì)。他呼吁各方面都要對(duì)市場(chǎng)有冷靜的判斷，要繼續(xù)去杠桿，建立一 個(gè)防范產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制，保住供給側(cè)改革帶來(lái)的成果。
Li Xinchuang, president of the Institute of Planning and Research of Metallurgical Industry, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange newspaper that the current industry is turning better, largely as a result of supply-side reform and environmental protection management. The industry needs to treasure the fruits of reform and prevent blind expansion. If again due to irrational expansion caused by overcapacity, I am afraid it is very difficult to have new opportunities for success. He called on all parties to have a calm judgment on the market, continue to de-leverage, establish a long-term mechanism to prevent overcapacity, and maintain the results of supply-side reform.

相比方管行業(yè)，煤炭行業(yè)近期更趨理性。目前已進(jìn)入用煤旺季，按照往年經(jīng)驗(yàn)，煤價(jià)也將進(jìn)入上漲期，但近期國(guó)內(nèi)動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)中趨弱，北方港口5500大卡主流交易價(jià)格維持在645-650元/噸。下游沿海六大電廠庫(kù)存偏高，存煤可用天數(shù)高達(dá)32.32天。
Compared with the square tube industry, the coal industry has become more rational recently. At present, it has entered the peak season of coal use. According to past years'experience, coal prices will also enter a period of rise. However, the domestic power coal market has been stabilizing and weakening recently. The mainstream transaction price of 5500 cards in northern ports has maintained at 645-650 yuan/ton. The six largest power plants on the lower reaches of the coast are on the high side, and the number of days available for coal storage is as high as 32.32 days.

中國(guó)煤炭運(yùn)銷協(xié)會(huì)副理事長(zhǎng)馮雨在2018中國(guó)煤及煤化工產(chǎn)業(yè)大會(huì)上表示，今年電廠變得更加智慧，從旺季的時(shí)候就開(kāi)始補(bǔ)庫(kù)存，這是支持目前煤價(jià)能夠保持穩(wěn)定的重要因素之一。在庫(kù)存已經(jīng)非常高的情況下，接下來(lái)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格大幅上漲的可能性不大。
Feng Yu, deputy director of China Coal Transport and Marketing Association, said at the 2018 China Coal and Coal Chemical Industry Conference that this year, power plants have become more intelligent, starting to replenish stocks in the peak season, which is one of the important factors supporting the current stability of coal prices. In the case of very high inventories, the possibility of a sharp rise in coal prices is unlikely.

展望明年煤市，馮雨認(rèn)為國(guó)際貿(mào)易形勢(shì)對(duì)上游煤炭等能源市場(chǎng)將形成明顯的打壓。隨著先進(jìn)產(chǎn)能釋放，煤炭供給將進(jìn)一步增加。不過(guò)，國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的韌性對(duì)煤炭需求有較大的支撐，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)加碼對(duì)煤炭市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成利好。整體來(lái)看，2019年煤炭需求增速較2018年有所放緩。
Looking ahead to next year's coal market, Feng Yu believes that the international trade situation will significantly suppress the upstream coal and other energy markets. With the release of advanced capacity, the supply of coal will further increase. However, the resilience of the domestic macro-economy has a greater support for coal demand, and the construction of infrastructure is good for the coal market. Overall, the growth rate of coal demand in 2019 slowed down compared with 2018.

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