國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)是方管需求淡季產(chǎn)量也有所減少

1月份及2月“春節(jié)”前后，國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)是鋼材需求淡季方管產(chǎn)量也有所減少。但受巴西淡水河谷發(fā)生潰壩事件影響，鐵礦石價(jià)格出現(xiàn)大幅上升走勢(shì)。從總體情況看，潰壩事件形成的影響有限，鐵礦石供需形勢(shì)并未發(fā)生明顯變化，鐵礦石價(jià)格難以持續(xù)大幅上漲。
Before and after the Spring Festival in January and February, the domestic market is in the off-season of steel demand, and steel production has also decreased. However, due to the dam-break in Brazil's Vale, iron ore prices showed a sharp upward trend. Overall, the impact of dam-break events is limited, the situation of iron ore supply and demand has not changed significantly, and the price of iron ore is difficult to continue to rise substantially. 一、中國(guó)鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)大幅上升
1. China's iron ore price index has risen sharply

據(jù)鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)監(jiān)測(cè)，1月末，中國(guó)鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)（CIOPI）為294.76點(diǎn)，環(huán)比上升41.37點(diǎn)，升幅為16.33%。其中：國(guó)產(chǎn)鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)為243.47點(diǎn)，環(huán)比上升4.53點(diǎn)，升幅為1.90%；進(jìn)口鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)為302.52點(diǎn)，環(huán)比上升46.95點(diǎn)，升幅為18.37%。
According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of January, the China Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 294.76 points, up 41.37 points, or 16.33 percent. Among them: the domestic iron ore price index is 243.47 points, rising 4.53 points annually, an increase of 1.90%; the imported iron ore price index is 302.52 points, an increase of 46.95 points annually, an increase of 18.37%.

從全月平均水平看，中國(guó)鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)（CIOPI）總體高于上月。1月份，CIOPI綜合指數(shù)平均值為268.17點(diǎn)，較上月上升19.44點(diǎn)，升幅為7.82%。其中：國(guó)產(chǎn)鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)平均值為241.54點(diǎn)，比上月上升2.66點(diǎn)，升幅為1.11%；進(jìn)口鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)平均值為272.19點(diǎn)，環(huán)比上升21.97點(diǎn)，升幅為8.78%。
From the monthly average, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) is generally higher than last month. In January, the average CIOPI composite index was 268.17 points, up 19.44 points, or 7.82%, compared with the previous month. Among them: the average price index of domestic iron ore is 241.54 points, up 2.66 points from last month, up 1.11%; the average price index of imported iron ore is 272.19 points, up 21.97 points annually, up 8.78%.

二、國(guó)產(chǎn)鐵精礦價(jià)格相對(duì)平穩(wěn)，進(jìn)口粉礦價(jià)格大幅上升
2. Domestic iron concentrate prices are relatively stable, while imported fine ore prices have risen sharply.

1月末，CIOPI國(guó)產(chǎn)鐵精礦含稅價(jià)格為626.49元/噸，環(huán)比上升11.65元/噸，升幅為1.90%；CIOPI進(jìn)口粉礦到岸價(jià)格為81.71美元/噸，環(huán)比上升12.68美元/噸，升幅為18.37%，比國(guó)產(chǎn)礦價(jià)格升幅高16.47個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
At the end of January, CIOPI domestic iron concentrate tax price was 626.49 yuan/ton, rising 11.65 yuan/ton annually, up 1.90%; CIOPI imported fine ore landed price was 81.71 dollars/ton, up 12.68 dollars/ton annually, up 18.37%, 16.47 percentage points higher than domestic ore price.

需要關(guān)注的是，1月25日巴西淡水河谷位于米內(nèi)斯吉拉斯州的一處尾礦區(qū)發(fā)生潰壩事件后，進(jìn)口礦價(jià)格出現(xiàn)快速上揚(yáng)走勢(shì)。從全月平均水平看，國(guó)產(chǎn)鐵精礦平均含稅價(jià)格為621.52元/噸，比上月上升6.85元/噸，升幅為1.11%。其中：1月2日至1月末，由616.17元/噸波動(dòng)上行至626.49元/噸。
It should be noted that import prices of Brazilian Vale have risen rapidly after a dam-break in a tailings mine in Mines Gerais on January 25. From the monthly average, the average tax-bearing price of domestic iron concentrate is 621.52 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan/ton from last month, an increase of 1.11%. Among them, from January 2 to the end of January, the fluctuation of 616.17 yuan/ton went up to 626.49 yuan/ton.

進(jìn)口粉礦平均到岸價(jià)格為73.52美元/噸，比上月上升5.94美元/噸，升幅為8.78%。其中：1月2日至1月11日，由69.23美元/噸震蕩運(yùn)行至71.93美元/噸，1月11日至1月末，由71.93美元/噸上行至81.71美元/噸。春節(jié)后價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲，到2月12日達(dá)到87.92美元/噸，比1月末上漲7.6%。
The average CIF price of imported fine ore is 73.52 US dollars per ton, up 5.94 US dollars per ton, or 8.78% over the previous month. From Jan. 2 to Jan. 11, the oscillation run from $69.23 per ton to $71.93 per ton, and from Jan. 11 to the end of Jan. 11, the oscillation run from $71.93 per ton to $81.71 per ton. Prices continued to rise after the Spring Festival, reaching $87.92 per ton on February 12, up 7.6 per cent from the end of January.

三、后期鐵礦石價(jià)格走勢(shì)分析
III. Analysis of Iron Ore Price Trend in Later Period

1、巴西淡水河谷潰壩事件對(duì)供應(yīng)量影響有限，市場(chǎng)不宜過(guò)度解讀
1. Brazilian Vale Dam Break has limited impact on supply, and the market should not be over-interpreted.

2018年中國(guó)共進(jìn)口鐵礦石10.64億噸，比上年減少1022萬(wàn)噸，其中從巴西進(jìn)口鐵礦石2.05億噸，占中國(guó)進(jìn)口總量20%左右，比上年下降1300萬(wàn)噸左右。據(jù)多個(gè)國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，潰壩事件影響淡水河谷鐵礦石年產(chǎn)量4000-6000萬(wàn)噸，僅占中國(guó)年進(jìn)口量的5%左右。巴西淡水河谷減少的產(chǎn)量以及高硅礦等品種可被其他國(guó)家和地區(qū)進(jìn)口礦彌補(bǔ)。2019年我國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)需要進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，繼續(xù)鞏固去產(chǎn)能成果，鋼鐵產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)大幅增長(zhǎng)可能性較低，同時(shí)隨著廢鋼用量增加，對(duì)鐵礦石需求進(jìn)一步減少，后期鐵礦石價(jià)格也難以大幅上漲。
In 2018, China imported 1.064 billion tons of iron ore, a decrease of 10.22 million tons over the previous year, of which 205 million tons were imported from Brazil, accounting for about 20% of China's total imports, a decrease of 13 million tons over the previous year. According to several international agencies, the dam-break event affects the annual output of iron ore in Valley from 40 to 60 million tons, accounting for only about 5% of China's annual imports. The reduced output of Brazil's Valley and varieties of high-silicon minerals can be compensated by imported minerals from other countries and regions. In 2019, China's iron and steel industry needs to further promote the structural reform of supply side, continue to consolidate the results of capacity removal, and the possibility of large-scale growth of iron and steel output is low. At the same time, with the increase of scrap steel consumption, the demand for iron ore is further reduced, and iron ore prices are difficult to rise substantially in the later period.

2、鐵礦石需求強(qiáng)度下降，供大于求態(tài)勢(shì)仍未有改變
2. Demand intensity of iron ore has declined and the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged.

據(jù)鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)旬報(bào)統(tǒng)計(jì)，1月中上旬，會(huì)員鋼鐵企業(yè)平均日產(chǎn)粗鋼181.66萬(wàn)噸，估算全國(guó)日產(chǎn)粗鋼239.48萬(wàn)噸，比去年12月份下降2.47%；估算全國(guó)日產(chǎn)生鐵199.38萬(wàn)噸，比12月份下降2.20%。鋼鐵產(chǎn)量環(huán)比下降，鐵礦石需求強(qiáng)度繼續(xù)呈下降趨勢(shì)；1月末，全國(guó)進(jìn)口鐵礦石港口庫(kù)存量為1.40億噸，環(huán)比下降182萬(wàn)噸，降幅為1.29%，總體仍處于較高水平；總體來(lái)看，鐵礦石市場(chǎng)供大于求態(tài)勢(shì)仍未有大的改觀。
According to the statistics of the Tenth Annual Report of the Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of members'iron and steel enterprises was 181.66 million tons in mid-early January, which was estimated to be 239.48 million tons of crude steel in the whole country, down 2.47% from last December, and the daily output of iron in the whole country was estimated to be 199.38 million tons, down 2.20% from December. At the end of January, the stock of imported iron ore ports decreased by 1.22 million tons, a decline of 1.29%. Overall, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the iron ore market has not been greatly improved.

3、鋼材價(jià)格窄幅波動(dòng)，鐵礦石價(jià)格難以持續(xù)上漲
3. Steel prices fluctuate narrowly and iron ore prices are difficult to keep rising

據(jù)鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)監(jiān)測(cè)，2月1日，中國(guó)鋼材價(jià)格指數(shù)（CSPI）為106.77點(diǎn)，比去年12月末下降0.35點(diǎn)，降幅為0.33%。從今年以來(lái)各周情況看，鋼材價(jià)格呈窄幅波動(dòng)走勢(shì)。據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，12月中國(guó)制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理（PMI）為49.5%，比上月上升0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，連續(xù)兩月低于臨界點(diǎn)，顯示國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力較大，下游行業(yè)用鋼需求難以持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，目前仍處于鋼材消費(fèi)淡季，鋼材價(jià)格仍將以小幅波動(dòng)為主。后期鐵礦石價(jià)格難以持續(xù)上漲，將呈理性回歸走勢(shì)。
The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 106.77 points on February 1, down 0.35 points, or 0.33%, from the end of December last year, according to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association. From this year's weekly situation, steel prices show a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing manager of China's manufacturing industry (PMI) in December was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, which was lower than the critical point for two consecutive months. This shows that the downward pressure of the national economy is greater and the demand for steel for downstream industries is difficult to sustain growth. At present, it is still in the off-season of steel consumption, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly. Later iron ore prices are difficult to continue to rise, will be a rational return trend.

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