三月份國(guó)內(nèi)方管市場(chǎng)先穩(wěn)后漲行業(yè)存在的尷尬現(xiàn)狀

送走膠著2月份，迎來(lái)傳統(tǒng)“金三”。方管市在眼望今年終端工程啟動(dòng)明顯早于去年，各地大型項(xiàng)目審批助威，市場(chǎng)對(duì)于3月份方管市場(chǎng)同樣抱有期待。
Goodbye glued to February, ushering in the traditional "Jinsan". Fangguan City is looking forward to the start of terminal projects this year significantly earlier than last year. Large-scale projects around the city are approved and supported. The market also looks forward to the Fangguan market in March. 1、各地競(jìng)相審批、開(kāi)工大型項(xiàng)目絡(luò)繹不絕
1. There is an endless stream of large-scale projects competing for approval and start-up.

自2018年四季度以來(lái)，各地區(qū)按照政府“抓早抓緊抓實(shí)”要求，堅(jiān)持把各地項(xiàng)目建設(shè)放在重中之重，多措并舉全力加快推薦重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)。其中河南省2月底可集中開(kāi)工項(xiàng)目達(dá)2193個(gè)，總投資8650億元貴州正2019年共安排省重點(diǎn)大工程和重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目2738個(gè)，總投資44466元。安徽將新開(kāi)工1600逾個(gè)重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目。江蘇41個(gè)重大交通項(xiàng)目集中開(kāi)工，今年將完成綜合交通建設(shè)投資1370億元。以上僅僅是開(kāi)幕式，河北、河南、山東、附件、降息、四川等地總投資規(guī)模在達(dá)到接近或超2、3萬(wàn)億。多種跡象表明基建投資正在回暖，為鋼鐵行業(yè)帶來(lái)更多曙光。
Since the fourth quarter of 2018, in accordance with the government's requirement of "grasping the key projects as early as possible", all regions have insisted on putting the construction of projects in the top priority, and taken various measures to speed up the construction of recommended key projects. Henan Province can concentrate on 2193 projects at the end of February, with a total investment of 865 billion yuan. In 2019, Guizhou Province is arranging 2738 major projects and key projects, with a total investment of 44466 yuan. Anhui will start more than 1600 key projects. Forty-one major transport projects in Jiangsu have been centralized and started. This year, an investment of 137 billion yuan will be completed in the construction of comprehensive transport. These are just opening ceremonies. The total investment scale in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, accessories, interest rate cuts and Sichuan is approaching or exceeding 2,3 trillion yuan. There are many signs that investment in infrastructure is warming up, bringing more dawn to the steel industry.

2、方管廠受成本硬核支撐
2. Square Pipe Factory Supported by Cost Hard Core

月底，唐山方坯報(bào)價(jià)3480元，山東管坯報(bào)價(jià)4000-4050元。按照理論成本來(lái)核算，方坯噸價(jià)利潤(rùn)520元上下，管坯在800元左右。對(duì)于下游加工企業(yè)來(lái)講，按照年前管廠主流平均采購(gòu)管坯價(jià)格在3950元左右，當(dāng)前臨沂管廠中等熱軋管出廠價(jià)格4600元，而現(xiàn)多發(fā)的是年前訂單。按照節(jié)后4000元以上管坯理論核算，管廠利潤(rùn)在百元左右，利潤(rùn)微薄，下調(diào)空間極其有限，剛開(kāi)春便虧損，情理之中難以接受，后續(xù)會(huì)隨著需求釋放，出貨放量，價(jià)格無(wú)疑會(huì)有所上行。不過(guò)在今年新機(jī)組仍有陸續(xù)投產(chǎn)及去年投產(chǎn)今年產(chǎn)能正常釋放，供需矛盾高于其他品種，這即是方管行業(yè)存在的尷尬現(xiàn)狀。
At the end of the month, Tangshan billet quoted 3480 yuan, Shandong pipe billet quoted 4000-4050 yuan. According to the theoretical cost, the profit of billet price per ton is 520 yuan, and that of billet is about 800 yuan. For downstream processing enterprises, according to the average purchase price of pipe blanks in the previous year's main stream, the current Linyi Pipe Factory's medium hot-rolled pipe ex-factory price is 4600 yuan, while the current recurrence is the previous year's orders. According to the theoretical calculation of pipe billet above 4000 yuan after the festival, the profit of the pipe factory is about 100 yuan, the profit is small, the downward space is extremely limited, and it is hard to accept the loss just in the beginning of spring. The price will undoubtedly go up with the release of demand and the quantity of delivery. However, new units have been put into operation this year and released normally this year. The contradiction between supply and demand is higher than that of other types. This is the embarrassing situation of square management industry.

3、3月份社會(huì)庫(kù)存會(huì)加速套現(xiàn)
Social Inventory will Accelerate Cash Arrangement in March and March

截至2月28日，全國(guó)22個(gè)主導(dǎo)地區(qū)方管社會(huì)庫(kù)存在80.3萬(wàn)噸，和波谷64.4萬(wàn)噸，上升15.9萬(wàn)噸，仍較去年同期下降2.8萬(wàn)噸。對(duì)于囤貨貿(mào)易商來(lái)講，資金周轉(zhuǎn)是一大問(wèn)題，無(wú)疑有庫(kù)存者會(huì)急于拋售套現(xiàn)。臨沂管廠庫(kù)存累計(jì)14.95萬(wàn)噸，較節(jié)前庫(kù)存上升3.2萬(wàn)噸，開(kāi)工率達(dá)到88.8%，開(kāi)工率逐步回升，庫(kù)存壓力高于市場(chǎng)。3月前期，無(wú)論是鋼廠還是市場(chǎng)均需要資源流通逐漸順暢，最終流至終端需求方。
As of February 28, local social stocks in 22 leading areas in China were 830,000 tons, and 644,000 tons in Bogota, up 159,000 tons, still 28,000 tons lower than the same period last year. For hoarding traders, capital turnover is a major problem, there is no doubt that inventory will be eager to sell cash. The inventory of Linyi Pipeline Plant totals 149,500 tons, which is 32,000 tons higher than that before the festival. The start-up rate reaches 88.8%. The start-up rate gradually rebounds and the inventory pressure is higher than that of the market. In early March, both steel mills and the market need the smooth flow of resources gradually, and eventually flow to the terminal demander.

3月份迎來(lái)兩會(huì)，宏觀政策會(huì)陸續(xù)釋放利好。中美貿(mào)易摩擦談判有實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展，終端需求釋放早于去年。從鋼鐵本身行業(yè)來(lái)看，鋼廠庫(kù)存未爆發(fā)高壓，社會(huì)庫(kù)存上升在意料之中，另外，當(dāng)前建筑方管等品種價(jià)格低于春節(jié)前價(jià)格水平，底部?jī)r(jià)格無(wú)疑夯實(shí)，市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)小幅探漲，一旦有利好出現(xiàn)，會(huì)出現(xiàn)一波上漲行情。雖然管坯和方坯價(jià)格較大，但管坯亦不會(huì)落后同漲，管廠有小幅上調(diào)預(yù)期，但幅度可控，市場(chǎng)趁此出貨消化庫(kù)存，高價(jià)新資源陸續(xù)抵庫(kù)，方管價(jià)格有上沖訴求，不過(guò)漲幅整體可控。
March ushered in the two sessions, and macro-policies will be released one after another. Substantive progress has been made in Sino-US trade frictions negotiations, with the release of terminal demand earlier than last year. From the perspective of the steel industry itself, the stock of steel mills has not exploded high pressure, and the social stock has risen unexpectedly. In addition, the current price of construction square tubes and other products is lower than the price level before the Spring Festival. The bottom price is no doubt tampered. The market will continue to rise slightly. Once a favorable situation arises, a wave of rising prices will appear. Although the price of billet and billet is relatively high, but the billet will not lag behind and rise at the same time. The pipe factory has a slight increase in expectations, but the range is controllable. The market takes advantage of this to ship and digest inventory. High-priced new resources come to the warehouse one after another. The price of square tube has an appeal, but the increase is controllable as a whole.

方管