本周天津方管市場將震蕩觀望運行反彈力度有限

天津方管市場震蕩偏強運行。上周末價格上漲之后市場成交受阻，周初開市，天津方管市場價格向低位靠攏。隨后幾日，鋼坯 再次上漲，期螺震蕩偏強，再加上河鋼出臺較高的3月中旬結(jié)算價格，天津方管市場價格反彈，不過由于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)存在下行壓力，再加上對4月份預(yù)期普遍偏 差，市場價格反彈力度有限。價格方面，截至3月15日午間，天津市場上河北鋼鐵集團產(chǎn)HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高線價格為4580-4680 元，比上周價格漲20元；河北鋼鐵集團產(chǎn)Φ18-25mm三級抗震螺紋鋼價格為3940-3970元，比上周價格漲30-90元；三級盤螺價格為4030 元，比上周價格漲40元。
Tianjin Square Management Market has been shaking strongly. After last weekend's price rise, the market was blocked and opened at the beginning of the week. Tianjin Fangguan's market price was close to the low level. In the following days, the steel billet rose again, the concussion was strong, and Hegang introduced a higher settlement price in mid-March, Tianjin square tube market price rebounded. However, due to the downward pressure of domestic economic data and the general deviation of expectations for April, the rebound of market price was limited. In terms of price, as of noon on March 15, the price of HPB300 6.5-10mm high-line produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Tianjin market was 4580-4680 yuan, up 20 yuan from last week's price; the price of 18-25mm three-stage aseismic threaded steel produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group was 3940-3970 yuan, up 30-90 yuan from last week's price; and the price of third-stage threaded steel was 40yuan, up 40 yuan from last week's price. 復(fù)產(chǎn)預(yù)期增強，市場對4月份價格預(yù)期普遍不高，對價格持續(xù)上揚形成壓制。由于兩會與采暖季限產(chǎn)本周將要結(jié)束，復(fù)產(chǎn)預(yù)期使得“強原料弱成材”的情況 出現(xiàn)。而就算后期仍處于限產(chǎn)狀態(tài)，但肯定會寬松于兩會期間，產(chǎn)量增加已成必然。另外據(jù)了解，已經(jīng)停產(chǎn)幾年的軋三鋼廠，近期很可能將復(fù)產(chǎn)，到時庫存肯定會出 現(xiàn)明顯增加，將給市場形成明顯的壓力。而另一方面，3月14日，國內(nèi)重磅經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)出爐，整體數(shù)據(jù)有漲有降，經(jīng)濟存在下行壓力，也降低了市場對后期的預(yù)期。
Reproduction expectations increased, market expectations for April were generally not high, and the price continued to rise to suppress. As the two sessions and the heating season are coming to an end this week, the expected resumption of production has led to the emergence of "strong raw materials and weak mature materials". Even if the production is still limited in the later stage, it will certainly be relaxed during the two sessions, and the increase of production has become inevitable. In addition, it is understood that the rolling mill, which has been shut down for several years, is likely to resume production in the near future. At that time, inventory will definitely increase significantly, which will bring obvious pressure to the market. On the other hand, on March 14, the domestic heavy economic data came out, the overall data rose or fell, and there was downward pressure on the economy, which also reduced the market's expectations for the future.

需求繼續(xù)處于釋放通道以及鋼廠挺價政策對短期市場價格形成較強支撐。本周需求繼續(xù)處于釋放通道，各地成交不同程度放量，不論鋼廠還是市場去庫繼 續(xù)。據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)15日統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，天津方管市場庫存總量為24.81萬噸，比上周減少1.69萬噸，庫存下降明顯，短期庫存壓力不大。而鋼廠方面 也出臺挺價政策，2019年3月13日，河鋼集團在2019年3月上旬價格基礎(chǔ)上出臺2019年3月中旬方管產(chǎn)品銷售價格政策：高線價格上調(diào)30元/ 噸：現(xiàn)HPB300材質(zhì)Φ8-10mm高線銷售價格為4730元/噸；三級螺紋鋼(檢尺)基價上調(diào)30元/噸：HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18-22mm螺紋銷 售價格為3980元/噸；盤螺價格上調(diào)60元/噸：HRB400E抗震材質(zhì)Φ8-10mm打標盤螺銷售價格為4170元/噸。這次結(jié)算價比市場價格高百 元，倒逼商家不得不漲價以保住利潤。
Demand continues to be in the release channel as well as the short-term market price support policy of steel mills. This week, demand continues to be in the release channel, trading volume in different degrees throughout the country, whether steel mills or the market continues to depot. According to the statistics of Lange Iron and Steel Network on the 15th, the total inventory of Tianjin Square Management Market is 248.1 million tons, which is 16.9 million tons less than last week. The inventory decline is obvious and the short-term inventory pressure is not high. On March 13, 2019, Hegang Group promulgated the selling price policy of square pipe products in mid-March 2019 on the basis of the price in early March 2019: the high-line price was increased by 30 yuan/ton; the selling price of HPB300 material 8-10mm high-line is now 4 730 yuan/ton; the basic price of third-grade threaded steel (gauge) is increased by 30 yuan/ton; the selling price of HRB400E material 18-22mm thread is 3 yuan/ton. / The price of screw increased by 60 yuan per ton: HRB400E seismic material 8-10mm marked screw sold at 4170 yuan per ton. The settlement price is 100 yuan higher than the market price, forcing businesses to raise prices to maintain profits.

綜合來看，本周天津方管市場雖然對后期預(yù)期持悲觀態(tài)度，但本周在環(huán)保限產(chǎn)以及河鋼高結(jié)算的影響下價格仍勉強震蕩偏強。對于后期市場，隨著兩會結(jié) 束，環(huán)保因素的減弱，市場主體將重回到供需面的博弈。尤其是鋼廠復(fù)產(chǎn)以及需求持續(xù)釋放、去庫的速度等等將成為市場走向的主要因素。而鋼廠復(fù)產(chǎn)以及庫存的變 化有個周期，短期內(nèi)市場將以觀望為主。因此，預(yù)計本周天津方管市場將震蕩觀望運行。
In a word, although Tianjin Square Management Market held a pessimistic attitude towards the future expectations this week, the price was still barely volatile this week under the influence of environmental protection and high settlement of Hegang. For the latter market, with the end of the two sessions and the weakening of environmental protection factors, market players will return to the game of supply and demand. Especially, the reoccurrence of steel mills, the continuous release of demand, the speed of depot removal and so on will become the main factors of market trend. However, the reopening of steel mills and the change of stocks have a cycle, and the market will be mainly wait-and-see in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the Tianjin Square Management Market will be wobbly and wait-and-see next week.

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