進(jìn)入“銀四”方管價(jià)格或?qū)⒕S持震蕩偏強(qiáng)趨勢(shì)

進(jìn)入“銀四”傳統(tǒng)方管銷(xiāo)售旺季以來(lái)，方管價(jià)格就“蹭蹭蹭”的往上漲。目前，方管價(jià)格已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)6個(gè)工作日的上漲。方管價(jià)格上漲本來(lái)是好事，，但是面對(duì)上漲的行情，不少鋼貿(mào)商卻對(duì)于后期方管產(chǎn)量情況深感隱憂。對(duì)于后期方管價(jià)格的走勢(shì)，蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)研究中心主任王國(guó)清認(rèn)為，后期方管價(jià)格或?qū)⒕S持震蕩偏強(qiáng)趨勢(shì)。因?yàn)槟壳半m然有建基投資放量、環(huán)保趨嚴(yán)、庫(kù)存降幅加快等利好因素刺激方管價(jià)格上漲，但后期隨著方管產(chǎn)量增加，將對(duì)方管價(jià)格形成壓力。
Since entering the "Silver Fourth" traditional square tube sales peak season, square tube prices have been staggering upwards. At present, square tube prices have risen for six consecutive working days. It would have been a good thing to control the price increase, but in the face of the rising market, many steel traders are deeply worried about the production situation of square control in the later period. Wang Guoqing, director of Langer Iron and Steel Network Research Center, believes that the latter will maintain a strong trend of shocks. Because at present, although there are good factors such as investment in infrastructure, stricter environmental protection and faster inventory decline to stimulate the rise of square tube prices, with the increase of square tube production in the later period, pressure will be exerted on the price of the other side. 北京吉兆年商貿(mào)有限公司總經(jīng)理喬忠民表示，從近兩周來(lái)看，是有一個(gè)需求放量的情況，但是這只是短期的，從今年整個(gè)需求來(lái)看，不會(huì)比2018年高， 最多與去年的需求持平。喬忠民說(shuō)，目前方管價(jià)格的連續(xù)上漲，其實(shí)就是對(duì)未來(lái)需求的一個(gè)提前透支，大家在這個(gè)時(shí)候更應(yīng)該冷靜。因?yàn)樾枨蠓帕康耐瑫r(shí)，供給端一定會(huì) 加快速度生產(chǎn)，鋼產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)再創(chuàng)新高。因此，后期方管供大于求是大概率事件，未來(lái)的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)很大。
Qiao Zhongmin, general manager of Beijing JiZhaonian Commerce and Trade Co., Ltd., said that in the past two weeks, there is a situation of large demand, but this is only a short-term situation. From the whole demand of this year, it will not be higher than that of 2018, and at most it will be equal to last year's demand. Qiao Zhongmin said that at present, the continuous rise of Fangguan's price is actually an overdraft of future demand in advance, and everyone should be calm at this time. As demand increases, the supply side will surely speed up production, and steel production may reach new heights. Therefore, in the later stage, the oversupply of supply over demand is a big probability event, and the market risk in the future will be great.

北京萬(wàn)豪鋼鐵有限責(zé)任公司李棟經(jīng)理認(rèn)為，后期方管價(jià)格可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)回調(diào)。李棟表示，從3月份開(kāi)始需求量就在不斷攀升，因?yàn)槊磕甑倪@個(gè)時(shí)間都是北方工地陸 續(xù)開(kāi)工的節(jié)點(diǎn)，鋼筋用量大幅增加，目前銷(xiāo)量基本與去年同期相差無(wú)幾。雖然目前社會(huì)庫(kù)存和鋼廠庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)了大幅下降，但這只是短暫的；后期隨著鋼廠產(chǎn)量增加， 工地采購(gòu)減少，方管價(jià)格上漲的空間不會(huì)太大。
Li Dong, manager of Beijing Marriott Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., thinks that the price of Square Management may come back later. Li Dong said that the demand has been rising since March, because this time of year is the node of construction sites in the north, steel consumption has increased substantially, and the current sales are almost the same as the same period last year. Although the current social inventory and steel plant inventory has declined significantly, but this is only temporary; with the increase of steel plant output, site procurement decreased, square tube prices will not rise too much space.

北京中港貿(mào)易有限公司董事長(zhǎng)張亞輝說(shuō)，目前螺紋需求依然較為旺盛，公司出貨很好，庫(kù)存消化順暢。3月份制造業(yè)PMI超預(yù)期反彈，一季度地方專項(xiàng)債 發(fā)行額度超過(guò)1.4萬(wàn)億元，使得市場(chǎng)悲觀預(yù)期明顯緩解。工信部將組織開(kāi)展鞏固化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能成果抽查，唐山市二三季度限產(chǎn)補(bǔ)充政策出臺(tái)，市場(chǎng)對(duì)于供應(yīng)端收縮 的預(yù)期增強(qiáng)。不過(guò)當(dāng)前螺紋產(chǎn)量水平大幅高于去年同期，隨著電爐鋼利潤(rùn)的恢復(fù)，后期產(chǎn)量仍有釋放空間，對(duì)價(jià)格反彈將形成一定抑制，預(yù)計(jì)螺紋鋼后期走勢(shì)將以偏 強(qiáng)震蕩為主。
Zhang Yahui, chairman of Beijing Zhonggang Trading Co., Ltd., said that the demand for threads is still relatively strong at present. The company's shipment is very good and the stock digestion is smooth. Manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond expectations in March, with the issuance of local special bonds exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in the first quarter, which significantly alleviated market pessimism. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize spot checks to consolidate the results of eliminating excess capacity. The supplementary policy of production restriction in the second and third quarters of Tangshan City was introduced, and the market's expectation of supply-side contraction increased. However, the current level of threaded production is much higher than the same period last year. With the recovery of EAF steel profits, there is still room for the release of late production, which will restrain the price rebound to a certain extent. It is expected that the trend of late threaded steel will be dominated by strong shocks.

就目前而言，螺紋鋼現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格較3月份已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了較大幅度上漲。截止2019年4月9日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺(tái)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，國(guó)內(nèi)十大重點(diǎn)城市三級(jí)螺 紋鋼(Φ25mm)平均價(jià)格為4152元/噸，較前一日上漲了39元/噸，較上周上漲150元/噸，較上月上漲184元/噸。
At present, the spot price of threaded steel has risen considerably from March. As of April 9, 2019, according to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Platform, the average price of three-grade threaded steel (25mm) in ten major cities in China was 4152 yuan/ton, 39 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, 150 yuan/ton higher than last week and 184 yuan/ton higher than last month.

從最新庫(kù)存情況來(lái)看，近期方管社會(huì)庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)較大幅度的下降。截止4月4日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺(tái)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國(guó)29個(gè)重點(diǎn)城市方管社會(huì)庫(kù)存量為1317萬(wàn)噸，較上周減少92.4萬(wàn)噸，較3月1日庫(kù)存最高點(diǎn)1643萬(wàn)噸，經(jīng)過(guò)5周時(shí)間累積下降了326萬(wàn)噸。
Judging from the latest inventory situation, there has been a considerable decline in the square-managed social inventory in recent years. As of April 4, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the social stock of square management in 29 key cities in China was 13.17 million tons, down 924,000 tons from last week, 16.43 million tons from the highest stock on March 1, and 3.26 million tons after five weeks.

而大家所擔(dān)心的產(chǎn)量情況，也確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了一些變化，鋼廠的開(kāi)工率出現(xiàn)了較大幅度上升，后期鋼廠產(chǎn)量或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。截止4月4日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺(tái) 監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國(guó)百家中小鋼鐵企業(yè)高爐開(kāi)工率平均為80.6%，較上周上升7.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，結(jié)束3月份整月的下降趨勢(shì)。
The production situation that we are worried about has indeed changed. The start-up rate of steel mills has increased considerably, and the output of steel mills may increase in the later period. As of April 4, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, the average blast furnace start-up rate of 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in China was 80.6%, up 7.9 percentage points from last week, ending the downward trend in March.

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