進入“銀四”方管價格或?qū)⒕S持震蕩偏強趨勢

進入“銀四”傳統(tǒng)方管銷售旺季以來，方管價格就“蹭蹭蹭”的往上漲。目前，方管價格已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)6個工作日的上漲。方管價格上漲本來是好事，，但是面對上漲的行情，不少鋼貿(mào)商卻對于后期方管產(chǎn)量情況深感隱憂。對于后期方管價格的走勢，蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)研究中心主任王國清認為，后期方管價格或?qū)⒕S持震蕩偏強趨勢。因為目前雖然有建基投資放量、環(huán)保趨嚴、庫存降幅加快等利好因素刺激方管價格上漲，但后期隨著方管產(chǎn)量增加，將對方管價格形成壓力。
Since entering the "Silver Fourth" traditional square tube sales peak season, square tube prices have been staggering upwards. At present, square tube prices have risen for six consecutive working days. It would have been a good thing to control the price increase, but in the face of the rising market, many steel traders are deeply worried about the production situation of square control in the later period. Wang Guoqing, director of Langer Iron and Steel Network Research Center, believes that the latter will maintain a strong trend of shocks. Because at present, although there are good factors such as investment in infrastructure, stricter environmental protection and faster inventory decline to stimulate the rise of square tube prices, with the increase of square tube production in the later period, pressure will be exerted on the price of the other side. 北京吉兆年商貿(mào)有限公司總經(jīng)理喬忠民表示，從近兩周來看，是有一個需求放量的情況，但是這只是短期的，從今年整個需求來看，不會比2018年高， 最多與去年的需求持平。喬忠民說，目前方管價格的連續(xù)上漲，其實就是對未來需求的一個提前透支，大家在這個時候更應該冷靜。因為需求放量的同時，供給端一定會 加快速度生產(chǎn)，鋼產(chǎn)量可能會再創(chuàng)新高。因此，后期方管供大于求是大概率事件，未來的市場風險會很大。
Qiao Zhongmin, general manager of Beijing JiZhaonian Commerce and Trade Co., Ltd., said that in the past two weeks, there is a situation of large demand, but this is only a short-term situation. From the whole demand of this year, it will not be higher than that of 2018, and at most it will be equal to last year's demand. Qiao Zhongmin said that at present, the continuous rise of Fangguan's price is actually an overdraft of future demand in advance, and everyone should be calm at this time. As demand increases, the supply side will surely speed up production, and steel production may reach new heights. Therefore, in the later stage, the oversupply of supply over demand is a big probability event, and the market risk in the future will be great.

北京萬豪鋼鐵有限責任公司李棟經(jīng)理認為，后期方管價格可能會出現(xiàn)回調(diào)。李棟表示，從3月份開始需求量就在不斷攀升，因為每年的這個時間都是北方工地陸 續(xù)開工的節(jié)點，鋼筋用量大幅增加，目前銷量基本與去年同期相差無幾。雖然目前社會庫存和鋼廠庫存出現(xiàn)了大幅下降，但這只是短暫的；后期隨著鋼廠產(chǎn)量增加， 工地采購減少，方管價格上漲的空間不會太大。
Li Dong, manager of Beijing Marriott Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., thinks that the price of Square Management may come back later. Li Dong said that the demand has been rising since March, because this time of year is the node of construction sites in the north, steel consumption has increased substantially, and the current sales are almost the same as the same period last year. Although the current social inventory and steel plant inventory has declined significantly, but this is only temporary; with the increase of steel plant output, site procurement decreased, square tube prices will not rise too much space.

北京中港貿(mào)易有限公司董事長張亞輝說，目前螺紋需求依然較為旺盛，公司出貨很好，庫存消化順暢。3月份制造業(yè)PMI超預期反彈，一季度地方專項債 發(fā)行額度超過1.4萬億元，使得市場悲觀預期明顯緩解。工信部將組織開展鞏固化解過剩產(chǎn)能成果抽查，唐山市二三季度限產(chǎn)補充政策出臺，市場對于供應端收縮 的預期增強。不過當前螺紋產(chǎn)量水平大幅高于去年同期，隨著電爐鋼利潤的恢復，后期產(chǎn)量仍有釋放空間，對價格反彈將形成一定抑制，預計螺紋鋼后期走勢將以偏 強震蕩為主。
Zhang Yahui, chairman of Beijing Zhonggang Trading Co., Ltd., said that the demand for threads is still relatively strong at present. The company's shipment is very good and the stock digestion is smooth. Manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond expectations in March, with the issuance of local special bonds exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in the first quarter, which significantly alleviated market pessimism. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize spot checks to consolidate the results of eliminating excess capacity. The supplementary policy of production restriction in the second and third quarters of Tangshan City was introduced, and the market's expectation of supply-side contraction increased. However, the current level of threaded production is much higher than the same period last year. With the recovery of EAF steel profits, there is still room for the release of late production, which will restrain the price rebound to a certain extent. It is expected that the trend of late threaded steel will be dominated by strong shocks.

就目前而言，螺紋鋼現(xiàn)貨價格較3月份已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了較大幅度上漲。截止2019年4月9日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，國內(nèi)十大重點城市三級螺 紋鋼(Φ25mm)平均價格為4152元/噸，較前一日上漲了39元/噸，較上周上漲150元/噸，較上月上漲184元/噸。
At present, the spot price of threaded steel has risen considerably from March. As of April 9, 2019, according to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Platform, the average price of three-grade threaded steel (25mm) in ten major cities in China was 4152 yuan/ton, 39 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, 150 yuan/ton higher than last week and 184 yuan/ton higher than last month.

從最新庫存情況來看，近期方管社會庫存出現(xiàn)了一個較大幅度的下降。截止4月4日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國29個重點城市方管社會庫存量為1317萬噸，較上周減少92.4萬噸，較3月1日庫存最高點1643萬噸，經(jīng)過5周時間累積下降了326萬噸。
Judging from the latest inventory situation, there has been a considerable decline in the square-managed social inventory in recent years. As of April 4, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the social stock of square management in 29 key cities in China was 13.17 million tons, down 924,000 tons from last week, 16.43 million tons from the highest stock on March 1, and 3.26 million tons after five weeks.

而大家所擔心的產(chǎn)量情況，也確實出現(xiàn)了一些變化，鋼廠的開工率出現(xiàn)了較大幅度上升，后期鋼廠產(chǎn)量或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)增長。截止4月4日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺 監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國百家中小鋼鐵企業(yè)高爐開工率平均為80.6%，較上周上升7.9個百分點，結(jié)束3月份整月的下降趨勢。
The production situation that we are worried about has indeed changed. The start-up rate of steel mills has increased considerably, and the output of steel mills may increase in the later period. As of April 4, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, the average blast furnace start-up rate of 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in China was 80.6%, up 7.9 percentage points from last week, ending the downward trend in March.